Dennis' Dreamfield——面包师的钱袋子®

    The latest released U.S Consumer Confidence Index(CCI) rebound remarkably to 54.9, far from previous 40.8. And it is the third consecutive bounce after the trough in February.

    Likewise, the April’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index demonstrates a strong trend of growth from bottom. The reading of April is 65.1, 20% higher than that in November 2008.

    The CCI has become an important weatherglass of U.S macroeconomics because the domestic consumption accounts for about 70% of the economy. Historically, CCI highly correlates with the growth rate of GDP.

    Judging from the bounce of CCI in constant two months, I reckon that U.S economy is better off in Q2 than in Q1. The CCI of Japan also give us a optimistic signal as it climbs from the bottom in Dec 2008 to 32.4 in April with a sharp 24% increase, indicating an improved situation of economy.

    The CCI of Euro-zone performs the least. Yet the trough seems to be behind us as the CCI slightly climbs from 64.7 of March to 67.2 of April, equalizing the reading of January 2009. It could be said that the economy of Euro-zone will recover in Q2 if the CCI of May shows a continuous growth.